The state suggests that municipalities adopt forecasts compatible with their risk tolerance, in terms of people, natural resources and infrastructure assets at risk from water inundation. The City of Belvedere has concluded that a low risk aversion strategy is appropriate i.e. the consequences of greater-than-expected flooding are problematic but not catastrophic, hence the relatively conservative forecast of 1.1 ft of sea-level rise by 2050 (versus a baseline year of 2000).
For comparison purposes, the San Francisco Bay rose at a rate of 0.64 ft per century for the period from 1897 to 2018, but with the rate of increase accelerating since the 1990s.
Our sea-level rise forecasts act as the benchmark against which today’s planning decisions are being made.
To understand the state’s forecasting methodology, please see this document.
To understand the low emission, high emission and H++ scenarios, please click here.