SLR Forecast

The City of Belvedere has adopted two key sea-level rise projections – for 2050 and 2100. The forecasts draw from the state’s 2018 State of California Sea-Level Rise Guidance document. Reflecting the inherent uncertainty in forecasting sea-level rise, the guidance provides a distribution of possible forecasts for various cities in California, including San Francisco, for every decade from 2030 to 2150. Forecasts for 2050 and 2100 are shown in the table below.

The state suggests that municipalities adopt forecasts compatible with their risk tolerance, in terms of people, natural resources and infrastructure assets at risk from water inundation. The City of Belvedere has concluded that a low risk aversion strategy is appropriate i.e. the consequences of greater-than-expected flooding are problematic but not catastrophic, hence the relatively conservative forecast of 1.1 ft of sea-level rise by 2050 (versus a baseline year of 2000).

For comparison purposes, the San Francisco Bay rose at a rate of 0.64 ft per century for the period from 1897 to 2018, but with the rate of increase accelerating since the 1990s.

Our sea-level rise forecasts act as the benchmark against which today’s planning decisions are being made.

To understand the state’s forecasting methodology, please see this document.

To understand the low emission, high emission and H++ scenarios, please click here.

userSLR Forecast