Emission Scenarios

Assumes an RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) of 2.6. This is the lowest of the four emissions scenarios adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment. RCP 2.6 is an aggressive emissions reduction scenario that assumes that CO2 emissions decline by about 70% between 2015 and 2050, to zero by 2080 and below zero thereafter. This scenario corresponds with the aspirational goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Assumes an RCP of 8.5, which is the highest of the four scenarios adopted by the IPCC and is a “business as usual” scenario. Under this scenario, emissions nearly double between 2015 and 2050. Thus far, greenhouse gas emissions worldwide have continued to follow this trajectory.

This is an extreme sea-level rise scenario which assumes extreme Antarctic ice loss, an outcome that is highly uncertain, but cannot be ignored. This is an unknown-probability, high-consequence scenario that would occur if high rates of Antarctic loss were to develop in the latter half of the century.

userEmission Scenarios